Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
As of this writing, John Mahama’s chance of a first round win per our model is at 27%; down from a high of 31.4%. This drop is entirely from our August Poll where a combined 28% of voters were either undecided or planning to vote for a 3rd party — both factors...
In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit. The challenging four: Bono...
Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions. Nana’s lucky seven: Bono East – Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances...
It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand. Highlights: Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level. Most...
