One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer.
What we are forecasting:
- Ahafo Region: our partial historic forecast gives the NPP a 68% chance of winning this region. Our Regional Partisan Lean Index classifies is as a “swing region with a slight NPP advantage”. And our Regional Competitive Index rates this region as the 4th most competitive in this year’s election.
- Bono East Region: with a partisan lean of +15 NDC and a competitiveness score of 82.3, our models rate this region as an NDC stronghold but a weakly competitive region with the potential to become a swing region in the future.
- North East Region: with a competitiveness rating of 82.7, the North East Region falls just within the swing region range of competition. Our Regional Forecast currently gives John Mahama a 71.1% chance of winning and a classification of “swing region with a decent NDC advantage.
- Oti Region: the 3rd least competitive region in this year’s election, expect the Oti region to be heavily dominated by the NDC. It is the party’s second safest region after the Volta Region.
- Savannah Region: our regional forecast gives John Mahama a 91.5% chance of winning this region. Per our Competitiveness Index, it is a non-competitive region with a score of 74.
- Western North: carved out of the Western Region, this newly created region is expected to be an NDC stronghold this year. Our Competitiveness Index gives it a score of 75 while our regional forecast currently gives John Mahama a 93.5% chance of winning the region
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