Who will win the 2020 Elections?

Our predictions of each party’s chances of winning

Nana Akuffo Addo

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Chance of winning

John Mahama

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Chance of winning

No one

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Chance of a run-off

Parliamentary Forecast

SAFE + LIKELY NPP SEATS

SAFE + LIKELY NDC SEATS

COMPETITIVE SEATS

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic mod…

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Who Will Win The 2020 General Elections?

The Vote233 partial forecast for each candidate's chance of winning the first round

UPDATED: MAY 6 2020 AT 9:55 AM

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chance of Nana Addo winning

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chance of John Mahama winning

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chance no one wins the first round

Featured Story

Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...

How many votes does it take for a 3rd party to have a shot?

For some Ghanaians, having to choose between the NPP and NDC presents a limited set of options that’s far from ideal. There are those who do not see the hold both parties have over the nation to be a positive thing. Certainly, that percentage of voters seeking a...

For PPP, KEEA presents the best shot at winning a seat in parliament.

The electoral history of Ghana’s 4th republic shows a gradual waning in support for the smaller parties that seek to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC. In 1996, the PNC won about 3% of all votes cast. In 2016, their share of the vote was a paltry 0.2%. Rather...

Forecast Update – Nana Addo & Mahama are down, chance of run-off up slightly

It's been a month since we last updated our Presidential forecast, and with only 136 days to go to the elections we thought it's about time to take another look at the state of the race. The big takeaways: Our latest update to the elections forecast is largely driven...

Understanding our forecast: what Nana Addo’s 68% chance really means?

Instead of predicting the exact share of votes a candidate will get in the elections, our models compute the chance that that candidate will win 50% + 1 votes. This is what we call a probabilistic forecast and it's very different from predicting how many votes a...

Nana Addo’s Path To Re-election

For the first time in Ghana's history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the...

3 Key Reasons Why The NDC Lost in 2016

In 2016, John Mahama made history as the first incumbent president to lose after one term in office since Ghana returned to multi-party democracy in 1992. So, what went wrong for the NDC? There are many theories one could put forth as reasons why the NDC lost. Some of...

How we are forecasting the elections

Forecasting an election is never an easy task. I like to think of it as part art part science. There are many ways you can go about it, depending on the type of outcome one is looking to predict. Ultimately though, a good election forecast will correctly predict the...

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