Nana Addo is slightly favoured to win

Our predictions of each candidate’s chances of winning

Updated Sep 21, 2020

Nana Akuffo Addo

%

Chance of winning

John Mahama

%

Chance of winning

No one

%

Chance of a run-off

We simulate the election 10,000 times to see who wins most often. The probabilities listed above give you a sense of the range of outcomes our model thinks could happen.

Forecast Trend Over Time

Latest Poll

Aug 22 - Sep 3 
516 Registered Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 4

If the elections were held today, for whom would you vote?

  • NANA ADDO (NPP) 46.6% 46.6%
  • JOHN MAHAMA (NDC) 24.8% 24.8%
  • I AM UNDECIDED 20% 20%
  • NEITHER OF THEM 8.6% 8.6%

Presidential Approval – How popular is Nana Addo?

  • APPROVE 70.2% 70.2%
  • DISAPPROVE 29.8% 29.8%

The Path to Victory

Nana Addo’s Path To Victory

John Mahama’s Path To Victory

Parliamentary Forecast

SAFE + LIKELY NPP SEATS

SAFE + LIKELY NDC SEATS

COMPETITIVE SEATS

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic mod…

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Regional Forecast Update

Regional Forecast Update

It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand.  Highlights:...

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A core part of our elections forecast model is the notion of ‘strongholds’ and ‘swing regions’. This same notion applies to the parliamentary race...

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Who Will Win The 2020 General Elections?

The Vote233 partial forecast for each candidate's chance of winning the first round

UPDATED: MAY 6 2020 AT 9:55 AM

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chance of Nana Addo winning

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chance of John Mahama winning

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chance no one wins the first round

Featured Story

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Instead of predicting the exact share of votes a candidate will get in the elections, our models compute the chance that that candidate will win 50% + 1 votes. This is what we call a probabilistic forecast and it's very different from predicting how many votes a...

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Forecasting an election is never an easy task. I like to think of it as part art part science. There are many ways you can go about it, depending on the type of outcome one is looking to predict. Ultimately though, a good election forecast will correctly predict the...

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