Who will win the 2020 Elections?

Our predictions of each party’s chances of winning

Our 2020 Elections Forecast

*Chances of winning based on historic trends only

  • Nana Akuffo Addo | NPP 68.3% 68.3%
  • John Mahama | NDC 29.9% 29.9%
  • No one wins 1.8% 1.8%

Our Regional Forecast

*Chance of winning a majority of votes based on historic trends only

Ahafo

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 68.0%

John Mahama (NDC) : 22.5%

Ashanti

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 99.8%

John Mahama (NDC) : 0.1%

Bono

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 66.3%

John Mahama (NDC) : 24.6%

Bono East

John Mahama (NDC) : 84.2%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) : 8.7%

Central

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 51.0%

John Mahama (NDC) : 42.5%

Eastern

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 91.0%

John Mahama (NDC) : 4.5%

Greater Accra

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 49.8%

John Mahama (NDC) : 46.0%

North East

John Mahama (NDC) : 71.1%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 4.0%

Northern

John Mahama (NDC) – 83.8%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) – 4.8%

Oti

John Mahama (NDC) : 96.8%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) : 1.0%

Savannah

John Mahama (NDC) : 91.5%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) : 1.8%

Upper East

John Mahama (NDC) : 85.3%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) : 0.3%

Upper West

John Mahama (NDC) : 88.9%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) : 0.9%

Volta

John Mahama (NDC) : 99.9%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) : 0.0%

Western

Nana Akuffo Addo (NPP) : 70.7%

John Mahama (NDC) : 10.3%

Western North

John Mahama (NDC) : 93.5%

Nana Akuffo Addo (NDC) : 3.5%

Our Parliamentary Forecast

More than 80% chance of winning is safe 

AHAFO

Safe NPP : 1 seat

Competitive : 5 seats

Safe NDC: 0 seats

ASHANTI

Safe NPP : 40 seats

Competitive : 6 seats

Safe NDC: 0 seats

BONO

Safe NPP : 6 seats

Competitive : 6 seats

Safe NDC: 0 seats

BONO EAST

Safe NPP: 0 seats

Competitive : 5 seats

Safe NDC: 6 seats

CENTRAL

Safe NPP : 5 seats

Competitive : 17 seats

Safe NDC: 1 seat

EASTERN

Safe NPP: 23 seats

Competitive : 5 seats

Safe NDC: 5 seats

GREATER ACCRA

Safe NPP : 9 seats

Competitive : 15 seats

Safe NDC: 10 seats

NORTH EAST

Safe NPP : 0 seats

Competitive : 3 seats

Safe NDC: 3 seats

NORTHERN

Safe NPP: 0 seats

Competitive: 9 seats

Safe NDC: 9 seats

OTI

Safe NPP : 0 seats

Competitive : 1 seat

Safe NDC: 7 seats

SAVANNAH

Safe NPP : 0 seats

Competitive : 0 seats

Safe NDC: 7 seats

UPPER EAST

Safe NPP : 0 seats

Competitive : 2 seats

Safe NDC: 13 seats

UPPER WEST

Safe NPP : 0 seats

Competitive : 3 seats

Safe NDC: 8 seats

VOLTA

Safe NPP: 0 seats

Competitive : 0 seats

Safe NDC: 18 seats

WESTERN

Safe NPP : 6 seats

Competitive : 10 seats

Safe NDC: 1 seat

WESTERN NORTH

Safe NPP : 0 seats

Competitive : 1 seat

Safe NDC: 8 seats

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic mod…

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Who Will Win The 2020 General Elections?

The Vote233 partial forecast for each candidate's chance of winning the first round

UPDATED: MAY 6 2020 AT 9:55 AM

%

chance of Nana Addo winning

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chance of John Mahama winning

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chance no one wins the first round

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