Nana Addo is favoured to win
Our predictions of each candidate’s chances of winning
Updated December 4, 2020
Nana Akuffo Addo
%
Chance of winning
John Mahama
%
Chance of winning
No one
%
Chance of a run-off
We simulate the election 10,000 times to see who wins most often. The probabilities listed above give you a sense of the range of outcomes our model thinks could happen.
Forecast Trend Over Time
Latest Poll
Nov 20 - Dec 2 1009 Registered Voters Margin of Error: +/- 3
If the elections were held today, for whom would you vote?
- NANA ADDO (NPP) 50.28%
- JOHN MAHAMA (NDC) 41.38%
- I AM UNDECIDED 6.51%
- NANA KONADU A. RAWLINGS (NDP) 0.84%
- IVOR GREENSTREET (CPP) 0.63%
- ALL OTHERS 0.35%
Presidential Approval – How popular is Nana Addo?
- APPROVE 69%
- DISAPPROVE 31%
The Path to Victory
Nana Addo’s Path To Victory
John Mahama’s Path To Victory
Parliamentary Forecast
SAFE + LIKELY NPP SEATS
SAFE + LIKELY NDC SEATS
COMPETITIVE SEATS
How does Vote233 forecast the elections?
Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic mod…
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Who Will Win The 2020 General Elections?
The Vote233 partial forecast for each candidate's chance of winning the first round
UPDATED: MAY 6 2020 AT 9:55 AM
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chance of Nana Addo winning
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chance of John Mahama winning
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chance no one wins the first round
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