Nana Addo is favoured to win

Our predictions of each candidate’s chances of winning

Updated December 4, 2020

Nana Akuffo Addo


Chance of winning

John Mahama


Chance of winning

No one


Chance of a run-off

We simulate the election 10,000 times to see who wins most often. The probabilities listed above give you a sense of the range of outcomes our model thinks could happen.

Forecast Trend Over Time

Latest Poll

Nov 20 - Dec 2 
1009 Registered Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 3

If the elections were held today, for whom would you vote?

  • NANA ADDO (NPP) 50.28% 50.28%
  • JOHN MAHAMA (NDC) 41.38% 41.38%
  • I AM UNDECIDED 6.51% 6.51%
  • NANA KONADU A. RAWLINGS (NDP) 0.84% 0.84%
  • IVOR GREENSTREET (CPP) 0.63% 0.63%
  • ALL OTHERS 0.35% 0.35%

Presidential Approval – How popular is Nana Addo?

  • APPROVE 69% 69%
  • DISAPPROVE 31% 31%

The Path to Victory

Nana Addo’s Path To Victory

John Mahama’s Path To Victory

Parliamentary Forecast




How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic mod…

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Regional Forecast Update

Regional Forecast Update

It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand.  Highlights:...

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What type of voter are you?

A core part of our elections forecast model is the notion of ‘strongholds’ and ‘swing regions’. This same notion applies to the parliamentary race...

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Who Will Win The 2020 General Elections?

The Vote233 partial forecast for each candidate's chance of winning the first round

UPDATED: MAY 6 2020 AT 9:55 AM


chance of Nana Addo winning


chance of John Mahama winning


chance no one wins the first round

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